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Following a
subdued Rare Whisky Market during 2020
due to Covid the Rare Whisky Market is
set to break all previous records in
2021 according to whisky analyst, broker
and investment experts Rare Whisky 101.
The rare whisky market for 2021 is set
to break all previous records, following
a strong first six months of the year,
according to new figures published by
whisky analyst, broker and investment
experts Rare Whisky 101.
The first half of 2021 has seen nearly
85,000 bottles of single malt Scotch
whisky traded on the secondary market
with a value of more than £36 million.
Based on the current rate of growth,
Rare Whisky 101 expects the full year
for 2021 to reach 172,500 of bottles
traded, an increase of 19.88% on 2019’s
record (143,895 bottles) with a value of
£75 million, an increase of 29.97% on
2019’s record (£57,707,707).
Rare whisky vs COVID-19
As with other physical asset classes,
trading in the rare whisky market was
subdued by a succession of lockdowns
during 2020. The overall number of
recorded bottles of single malt Scotch
whisky sold at auction in the UK in 2020
decreased slightly by 3.37% to 139,044
(2019 = 143,895), while the recorded
value decreased by 7.47% to £53,395,201
(2019 = £57,707,707).
However, the market experienced a
classic V shaped recovery following the
easing of the first lockdown in the UK.
November and December 2020 were record
breaking months from a volume
perspective with both months seeing more
than 16,000 bottles of single malt
Scotch whisky sold at auction in the UK
for the first time (previous record
April 2019 = 15,830). Figures for May
2021 once again raised the bar with
16,858 sold.
The average per-bottle price declined by
2.55% from £401.04 in 2019 to £390.81 in
2020 and has quickly re-bounded to
£426.58 at the 30th June 2021 – a new
record.
Broad investment values remain strong as
Apex 1000 rises
After two years of relatively flat
growth, Rare Whisky 101’s broadest
measurement of the market, the Apex1000
Index, closed the half-year 2021 up
9.06% with a full-year estimate of 17.5%
growth in investment values.
Springbank retained its #1 position from
an investor’s perspective. However, The
Macallan slipped 17 places to number 28.
Rare whisky vs alternative assets
Over an 18 month extended period, the
Apex1000 Index fractionally edged ahead
of gold by 0.03%, regaining its number
one spot in Rare Whisky 101’s
alternative asset rankings. Over an
extended six and a half years, since the
31st of December 2014, Scotch whisky’s
leading performance is comfortably
cemented, having achieved 225% growth
compared to 50% growth for gold.
Whisky investment analyst and co-founder
of Rare Whisky 101, Andy Simpson
commented:
"After an inevitable dip in volume
supply following the double impact of
Covid-19 and Brexit, the secondary
market for rare whisky is, once again,
set to smash all records. In our view,
the pandemic has shown us that physical
assets, such as whisky, have become ever
more popular. When combined with a
growing global consumer thirst for
single malt which shows no signs of
slowing, we see no reason why prices
will not continue to rise for the right
bottles.
"However, as is always the case, there
are some watch-outs for collectors and
investors. There are still some high
value re-fills and fakes creeping into
the market, so constant vigilance is
required. We’re also seeing stress in
the high value (>£5,000) segment of the
market and have seen bottles selling
recently for around 50% of their
2018/2019 high points.
"For investors, we’ve seen plenty of
movement up and down the rankings. The
Macallan is an interesting case in
point. The brand has further extended
market share over the past year, but
investment values have slipped. In part,
we believe that the sheer volume of non
age-stated releases may have confused
the market, potentially leading
collectors and investors to seek out
other brands. However, it’s worth noting
that the recent Macallan Red collection
is a great example of where the brand
works very well, leveraging the value of
its aged stocks.
“The data also provides some useful
insights for collectors, as well as
brand owners. From a price perspective,
popularity is increasing in the more
affordable sub-£1,000 segment. Yet this
price-point isn’t particularly well
served by brand owners who have been
focused on releasing the ‘most
expensive’ or ‘oldest’ to attract high
net worth buyers. We sense a genuine
uplift in the number of collectors who
are prepared to pay premium prices but
not £20,000+ for a 50 year old."
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